3 Methods, 1 Range

Three valuation lenses. One confidence-banded answer.

Bootstrapped SaaS at $1M ARR? You need ARR multiple. $5M ARR profitable? SDE matters. Burn-rate-positive? DCF kicks in. Ventura runs all three, like real M&A advisors do.

Single-method valuations lie

  • ARR multiples ignore profitability, you look great until DD opens the books
  • SDE multiples ignore growth, you get under-priced if you're scaling fast
  • DCF is theoretical, most SaaS founders don't have 5-year forecasts

Features

  • ARR multiple, adjusted: Sector + growth + NRR + customer concentration → real 2026 multiples, not Twitter rules of thumb
  • SDE multiple: Seller's Discretionary Earnings: how profitable bootstrapped SaaS really get priced under $3M ARR
  • Simplified DCF: 5-year projection from your growth + margin, discounted at SaaS-appropriate WACC
  • Confidence-weighted: AI weights each method by your stage, pre-profitable lean toward ARR, profitable lean toward SDE
  • Sensitivity analysis: See how each input moves your valuation, find the highest-leverage lever to pull
  • Comparable transactions: 40+ verified 2026-2026 SaaS deals matched to your sector & ARR

How it works

  1. Step 1 - Enter 8 metrics: ARR, growth, NRR, churn, gross margin, founder hours, SDE if known.
  2. Step 2 - AI runs all 3 methods: Each method produces a value, then AI weights them by your profile.
  3. Step 3 - Get your range + drivers: Low / Mid / High band + the top 3 drivers of your valuation.

FAQ

When does ARR multiple work best?

For growth-stage SaaS ($1M-$10M ARR) growing 30%+ YoY with strong NRR. Buyers price growth, not profit, in this range.

When does SDE matter more?

Bootstrapped, profitable SaaS under $3M ARR, buyers price your take-home cash flow, not just topline.

Is DCF useful for SaaS?

Useful as a sanity check, especially for stable, profitable SaaS. Less useful for pre-profitable hyper-growth.